NOTE: This article was written before the release of Captain America: The First Avenger, and uses box office numbers from North American film releases.

The summer of 2012 will bring us the conclusion of Christopher Nolan’s beloved franchise in the form of The Dark Knight Rises. But while we will be saying goodbye to Batman and his brilliant dark cohorts this time next year, 2012 will also mark the legitimate beginning of another series. No, I am not talking about The Amazing Spider-Man (which looks to be living up to its title already); I am talking about The Avengers -- the supposed light at the end of the tunnel for Marvel.

But even with the immaculate star power involved in that film, Comic-Con chatter a mere distance away and Disney’s D23 convention on the horizon, I am not quite ready to surrender to any hype for the ultimate team-up film quite yet.

While it is all too clear this summer with the one-two punch of Thor and Captain America: The First Avenger what Marvel’s cinematic plans are, way back in 2008, it was mostly just a fanboy’s wet dream. Nick Fury -- played by Samuel L. Jackson, of all people -- showed up at the end of the wildly entertaining Iron Man (Marvel Studios’ first foray into producing a film based on their characters, instead of merely licensing them out, ie. X-Men and Spider-Man), and asked Tony Stark the rather subtle question: “Have you heard of ‘The Avengers’ initiative?” It seemed like a moment that was too good to be true, and a mere passing reference to something that would likely not pan out. An Avengers movie? Really? But then The Incredible Hulk came out just a month later, and Tony Stark showed up to tell General Ross that a team was being put together. No mention of what kind of team, but it was clear he was, again, referring to The Avengers.

Soon after, Marvel announced a bevy of four movies were in the works: Iron Man 2, the aforementioned Thor and Captain America, and after all that, The Avengers. Cue the fanboys, the comic nerds, and just about anyone with a vague sense of interest in the Marvel universe to let out the biggest squeal of their lives. I know I was excited.

But then Marvel got bought by Disney.

And then Iron Man 2 came out.

And then Joss Whedon, Lord of the Browncoats and geeks alike, was announced as the writer/director of The Avengers, and the rest of the principal cast was announced.

Rather suddenly, my enthusiasm waned. For it became crystal clear that Marvel was no longer in the business of entertaining fans and non-fans alike. They were no longer trying to make comic fans out of all of us. No, they were trying to build a film empire, and wanted to line the path to The Avengers with enough money that success would be virtually guaranteed.

But after this summer’s epic stumble, I hope they really lined their pockets well, because this may end up becoming one of the most costly failures in the history of film.

Let’s start with where this idea went from awesome to completely off the rails insane – Iron Man 2. Some would argue that we should start with The Incredible Hulk, but after two films opening and closing without much excitement (not to mention all the star power and Oscar-winning talent that did next to nothing for either film), it is pretty clear that Bruce Banner and his green alter ego is better off relegated to being a secondary character and not the lead of his own film.

After blasting off with Iron Man, the sky was the limit. The producers could do anything they wanted with Iron Man 2, including bringing in the critically acclaimed "Demon in a Bottle" storyline that everyone adores. But instead of extending the mythos, instead of developing characters we grew to appreciate and love, we got an extended teaser for The Avengers. Pepper Potts was barely in the film, Rhodie had been changed from Terrence Howard to Don Cheadle and lost more than half of his screen time (not to mention being forced into the War Machine suit), and our main antagonist Ivan Vanko (Mickey Rourke) had two cool scenes and did barely anything else. Even Tony Stark seemed trimmed back. With all those elements missing, what did we get? Well, we got more of Nick Fury, some background on Tony Stark’s father Howard and his wheeling and dealing when he was a famous business tycoon, and numerous references and allusions to S.H.I.E.L.D. and The Avengers. Whether we liked it or not, Iron Man 2 was less about Old Shellhead, and more about the eventual team coming to fruition. Hell, the post-credits tease did not even involve Stark or Fury – we got Special Agent Coulson (Clark Gregg) out in the desert looking at Mjölnir: the Hammer of Thor.

After that disappointment came Thor, a movie starring a character I was not entirely familiar with and I doubt very many non-comic fans are all too well acquainted with either. I feared his film would suffer a similar fate, but I was only half right. We did get an introduction to the God of Thunder, but then got a pretty substandard character origin story afterwards. When the film was not busy spoon-feeding us reasons why we should care about him, it was busy stuffing our throats full of more S.H.I.E.L.D. dealings, allusions to The Hulk, and mentions of The Avengers. While it was fun to see second-string Marvel hero Hawkeye show up in an otherwise worthless cameo and see Coulson actually do something useful, I was plenty sick of what Marvel was shoveling about a third of the way into the film… probably about the point the film stops being about Thor on Asgard and becomes Thor on Earth. But if the insult of Iron Man 2’s ending not having anything to do with that film was not enough, Thor’s was even worse. Nick Fury shows up to talk to Dr. Erik Selvig, and discusses the Cosmic Cube -- and sure enough, in that scene we find out what is at stake in The Avengers.

Even with my excitement for Captain America: The First Avenger, these previous two films have already caused me to rethink my stance going into the film. Trailers have made mention of Howard Stark, as have photos of the Red Skull staring at the Cosmic Cube, and rumors abound that the end credit tease is a short teaser for The Avengers. How can I remain excited for something that looks so awesome, when I can already sense that Marvel has completely hijacked the film in order to inject its Avengers agenda into it? Can I even trust that the film will focus on Steve Rogers, and not feel like a mere set-up and extended commercial for next year’s superhero royale? So many questions, and yet, not enough answers.

My issues aside, a bigger question arises. With all this tedious preparation Marvel is going through, are audiences even going to care when May 4, 2012 finally arrives? Has comic book fatigue struck even before Marvel shows what it has been hedging its bets on? Sure, Thor did fairly well earlier this summer, making $65.7 million on opening weekend and sitting just under $180 million total. But it only made just over half of what Iron Man’s cinematic adventures made – and those films did not include a 3D upcharge. A month later, the critically acclaimed X-Men: First Class (arguably the second best in the five film series, behind X2: X-Men United) opened with $55.1 million, which is about $1 million more than the original X-Men did eleven years ago. It will end up making the least amount of money of any X-Men film to date. That includes the cinematic abortion we call X-Men Origins: Wolverine. Two weeks after that, DC Comics’ Green Lantern came out and was savagely beaten by just about everyone. The 3D upcharge did not help it much (it opened to $53 million, even less than the non-3D First Class did), and it will end up making even less than The Incredible Hulk did three years ago, again without the benefit of 3D.

It may sound like I am harping on 3D or preparing to bash it, but I only bring it up simply because both Captain America and The Avengers are coming to theatres attached at the hip with it. Taking these numbers into account, this is a set-up for failure. 3D is at an all-time low, and only falling with every new release. It is far too late for Captain America to drop the moniker, but The Avengers easily could drop it now and not lose out on too much money (it is being upconverted after all, not even filmed with real 3D cameras). But even without taking the 3D into consideration, it is fairly obvious that audiences are beginning to become disenfranchised by comic book films. We could surmise that this year’s crop failed simply because audiences did not really know them as well as they did a Spider-Man, or a Wolverine, or even a Batman. But then why did Iron Man do so well? Surely it was not just because of the pitch perfect casting of washout Robert Downey Jr. in the role he was born to play?

Which brings up the interesting question: how is The Avengers going to play out after four years of lead-up? Is it going to be the epic film we all anticipate, or will it too merely go through the motions and set-up for the next film? And then will Iron Man 3 and Thor 2 follow suit in 2013, or will they be their own isolated films about those characters?

Again, so many questions and so very little answers.

Robert Downey, Jr. (Iron Man), Clark Gregg (Phil Coulson), Scarlett Johansson (Black Widow), Chris Hemsworth (Thor), Chris Evans (Captain America), Samuel L. Jackson (Nick Fury), Jeremy Renner (Hawkeye), Mark Ruffalo (Hulk), director Joss Whedon, and producer Kevin Feige.

But that is not the worst of all of it. Marvel is staking everything on The Avengers right now. Every plan in motion, from shorts featuring even lesser-known characters from the Marvel stable, to new Disney theme park rides, to new animated films/TV shows, to even future movies, relies on The Avengers striking gold next summer. If it fails, it throws all the cogs out of order, and no doubt will force Marvel and Disney to question consumer interest, and wonder if it was really worth signing Jackson, Downey Jr., Chris Evans, Chris Hemsworth, Mark Ruffalo, and the rest of the gang to multi-picture deals (if I remember right, Jackson is slated to appear in nine [!] films as Nick Fury). Disney already had two costly failures in the last year: TRON: Legacy (which appears to still be under reevaluation, and we may see a second sequel yet) and Mars Needs Moms. Cars 2 is underperforming heavily, and Winnie the Pooh just flopped horrendously. Can they really afford to see this cash cow fail too?